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2012 California Propositions - Analysis, Trends, Predictions

posted Oct 1, 2012, 12:15 AM by Simon Nguyen   [ updated Nov 6, 2012, 11:11 PM ]

This page provides in-depth information on the 11 propositions to be voted in the 2012 California elections. They are Prop. 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39 and 40. The three selected California propositions will feature descriptions & analysis, poll numbers, list of pros & cons, and the final predictions.

California Proposition 30
Simon's Voter Pulse @10/29: Yes - 26 . No - 25 (not a percentage)
Analysis - This is shaping to be the closest race among the propositions. Despite being a liberal-leaning state, California has voted down several tax increase proposals in recent years. Is Gov. Jerry Brown persuasive enough to get the Democrats out to the polls?
(1) Increase taxes on those with annual earnings of over $250,000 for seven years.
(2) Raise sales tax by 1/4 cent for four years.
Pros - Help to ease somewhat the state's budget/debt crisis. Winners: California government, schools
Cons - Hurt some small businesses and may discourage employers from spending money and investing in the state. Losers: top 1%, small businesses, job seekers.
Prediction - Prop. 30 will pass by less than 3%.

California Proposition 32
Simon's Voter Pulse @10/29: Yes - 27 . No - 31 (not a percentage)
Analysis - Unless there is an abrupt change in attitude, current trends point to Prop. 32 being struck down by California voters.
(1) Ban unions and corporations (or government contractors) from using payroll-deducted funds for political activities.
(2) Ban contributions from the said entities to candidates and their campaigns.
Pros - Put limits on interest groups' influence on the elections. Winners: concerned voters, low profile candidates.
Cons - Reduce the effectiveness of unions and workers' advocacy groups. Losers: unions, some corporations and government contractors.
Prediction - Prop. 32 will FAIL to pass with about 54% opposed.

California Proposition 37
Simon's Voter Pulse @10/29: Yes - 29 . No - 25 (not a percentage)
Analysis - Agriculture lobby groups are spending millions of dollars in TV ads to try to defeat this measure. As a result, the race is closer than it should be.
(1) Require the proper and specific labeling of genetically engineered foods sold to consumers.
(2) Ban the marketing of modified foods as "natural" products.
Pros - Protect consumers from misleading marketing of potentially undesirable food. Winners: consumers, producers of organic food.
Cons - Discourage people from buying genetically modified food (which could be just as safe to eat as organic foods but cheaper). Loser: producers of modified foods.
Prediction - Prop. 37 will pass with over 50% support.

Other California Propositions
1) Prop. 31 - State Budget Reforms. Prediction - Not Pass
2) Prop. 33 - Auto prices based on driver's previous insurance history. Prediction - Pass
3) Prop. 34 - Repeal the Death Penalty. Prediction - Not Pass
4) Prop. 35 - Increase punishment for human trafficking convicts. Prediction - Pass
5) Prop. 36 - Reduce penalties for three-strikes-law offenders whose third strike is non-serious & non-violent. Prediction - Pass
6) Prop. 38 - Increase state income taxes for 12 years to finance education and reduce state debt. Prediction - Not Pass
7) Prop. 39 - Require multistate businesses to pay income taxes based on the percentage of their California's sales.
8) Prop. 40 - Approve new district boundaries by the Citizens Redistricting Commission.

About Simon's Voter Pulse: This qualitative model looks at data such as current political trends, past voting results, web search data (Google Trends) and opinion polls to measure voter's support for or disapproval of an issue.
Reference - California Official Voter's Information Guide